A Bayesian susceptible-infectious-hospitalized-ventilated-recovered model to predict demand for COVID-19 inpatient care in a large healthcare system.

The COVID-19 pandemic has strained healthcare systems in many parts of the United States. During the early months of the pandemic, there was substantial uncertainty about whether the large number of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization would exceed healthcare system capacity. This uncertainty created an urgent need to accurately predict the number of COVID-19 patients that would require inpatient and ventilator care at the local level. As the pandemic progressed, many healthcare systems relied on such predictions to prepare for COVID-19 surges and to make decisions regarding staffing, the discontinuation of elective procedures, and the amount of personal protective equipment (PPE) to purchase. In this work, we develop a Bayesian Susceptible-Infectious-Hospitalized-Ventilated-Recovered (SIHVR) model to predict the burden of COVID-19 at the healthcare system level. The Bayesian SIHVR model provides daily estimates of the number of new COVID-19 patients admitted to inpatient care, the total number of non-ventilated COVID-19 inpatients, and the total number of ventilated COVID-19 patients at the healthcare system level. The model also incorporates county-level data on the number of reported COVID-19 cases, and county-level social distancing metrics, making it locally customizable. The uncertainty in model predictions is quantified with 95% credible intervals. The Bayesian SIHVR model is validated with an extensive simulation study, and then applied to data from two regional healthcare systems in South Carolina. This model can be adapted for other healthcare systems to estimate local resource needs.

Effects of social isolation on quality of life in elderly adults.

Prolonged periods of social isolation are known to have significant negative health consequences and reduce quality of life, an effect that is particularly pronounced in older populations. Despite the known deleterious effects of social isolation, a key component of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the issuance of stay at home and/or shelter in place orders. Relatively little is known about the potential effects these periods of social isolation could have on older adults, and less still is known about potential risk factors or protective factors that modulate these effects. Here, we describe results from a longitudinal study in which we measured quality of life both prior to and immediately following a one-month period of social isolation associated with the issuance and revocation of a shelter in place order (April 6, 2020 through May 4, 2020) in the state of South Carolina. Healthy adult participants (N = 62) between the ages of 60 and 80 who had already completed quality of life questionnaires prior to isolation again completed the questionnaires following a one-month order to shelter in place. Quality of life significantly decreased during the social isolation period, with older participants showing the greatest declines. Participants with higher levels of physical activity and better physical/mental health going into the isolation period tended to show greater decreases in quality of life over time. These results highlight the negative consequences of even short bouts of social isolation for the elderly and suggest that reductions in social contact related to COVID-19 may have significant effects on mental health and emotional well-being, at least among older individuals.